Clacton Decides – Will Farage’s Gamble Pay Off?
In the last few weeks the former MP for Clacton, Essex, Nigel Farage has triggered a by-election after a series of controversial headlines surrounding a £5 million donation from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. This also follows on from him failing to declare donations from convicted criminal and fraudster George Cotrell. The purpose of this by-election for Farage is simple, to try and strengthen his political mandate. This would prove that, regardless of the expense scandals that were previously being investigated by the Parliamentary Standards Committee, residents of Clacton still see him best suited to be their MP.
However this has somewhat backfired for Farage as none of the main Westminster parties have opted to run, arguing that it is political stunt to divert attention and avoid actual scrutiny. As a result, Farage’s main opponent is a man whose main policies include nationalising Adele and relocating hand dryers in a pub in Uxbridge. The candidate in question being Count Binface. So, given that the choice of candidates in Clacton is somewhat limited (Farage, Binface and a handful of local independents) how will the residents of Clacton vote, and how could turnout look in this unusual by-election?
First of all, is Farage actually popular in Clacton? With only 46.2% of the vote in the 2024 election, over 50% of Clacton voters did not actively want him as their MP in the last election. Should this have changed and public opinion has swung further against him, the likelihood of him returning is much slimmer. Despite regular criticism in Parliament about how little time Farage has spent in Clacton, recent interviews from the Financial Times show residents continue to see him as the answer to Clacton’s issues with one resident claiming “Labour, Conservatives, they’re all the same. Nigel can fix it.” Equally, in response to the donations Farage has received, the same person said “I think he needs £5mn, he needs £10mn, for protection.” The general perception in Clacton is that people will turn out to support Farage and back him as they feel he has been overly criticised and attacked without the opportunity to justify himself, in spite of having over 38 appearances on Question Time.
It seems fairly set in stone that Farage will return due to high support in a constituency where, until being interviewed by reporters about it, residents were unaware the by-election was even going to happen. This then leaves a few further points of interest: how will those who feel Farage does not represent them vote, how this will then effect turnout, and whether this by-election actually carries any political weight or not.
Given his previous track record, it would be sensible to assume Count Binface will not receive many votes. A significant proportion of the electorate will feel disillusioned in this by-election due to the lack of parties standing. It feels misrepresentative to give any weight to his previous bids to become an MP, most recently in Makerfield where he got 95 votes, 0.2% of the vote share. However, this was a much more typical by-election with all the major parties fielding candidates. Now as a front runner, his chances are higher than ever before, but he himself has said that he probably will not win.
Given residents were unaware of Farage’s resignation, it feels very unlikely the people of Clacton will spend a considerable amount of time researching the local independent candidates standing. Despite being portrayed as a by-election between Farage and Binface exclusively, even one of Prime Minister Starmer’s final comments was that “They intend to spend the summer arguing with a bin”, there are in fact 34 candidates standing. Candidates such as Ollie Granger who wants investment in new jobs and reforms to how policing operates in the area and Lawrence Fox from the Reclaim party who are critical about “uncontrolled mass immigration and open borders.”
Other candidates include Nick the Incredible Flying Brick from the Monster Raving Looney Party. Their manifesto includes criticism of Binface as they wish to reduce “intergalactic interference” from UK politics. By virtue of there only being one candidate from a mainstream Parliamentary party, smaller candidates and independent MPs are using this as an opportunity to gain influence regardless of how serious and plausible their policies are.
The consequence of there being more unknown candidates and none from the main parties is that turnout is almost guaranteed to be low. At 58% in 2024, it already falls below the national average for that election. Given Farage is almost guaranteed to win, there is very little incentive for anyone who disagrees with him to turnout and vote for candidates they have likely never heard of before.
So, this by-election is much more unusual than previous ones we have seen in recent times, and the long-term consequences of this will seemingly be minimal. Given Farage is standing in a constituency where he has broad support he already would have been the favourite to win. Now he has no serious opposition, it is almost guaranteed. However this does nothing for his bid to extend his mandate as he has not had to overcome any immediate opposition. Should he be successful then the original investigation against Farage will continue but without him having any more of a credible argument than beforehand. This could ultimately result in him being recalled and a second by-election in Clacton which will be more highly contested. It certainly feels difficult to think this has panned out how Farage expected it to.