Irish reunification: on the cards?

Donald Trump’s September visit to Ireland made headlines, specifically when he was asked about one topic: Irish reunification. Trump answered that he would love to see a united Ireland, claiming “it is going to happen eventually”. This brought the debate back into the forefront of UK political coverage, and has people, both in Ireland and the UK, asking again: could Irish reunification actually be on the cards?

The obvious answer would be no. Andy Burnham himself, in the weeks before Trump’s visit, stated a border poll is “off the table”, emphasising the need to focus on bringing people together instead. However, like much in Northern Irish politics, in reality, it is not that simple. 

Before the island can become one country, aside from the political will, there would need to be a referendum. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement lays out the conditions for calling a border poll. It states either the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland can call one if they wish to, or, more significantly, a referendum must be called if it “appears likely” that the majority in Northern Ireland would be in support of reunification. For many years after the Good Friday Agreement was established in 1998, there was little to no sign of this, most clearly shown by the Democratic Unionist Party’s repeated success in Stormont elections. 

However, the 2016 Brexit vote represented a shift in the political climate of Northern Ireland. Despite being largely ignored by both sides of the Brexit campaigns, Northern Ireland became a hugely complex element of the subsequent withdrawal negotiations, as it was the only land border the UK had with the EU. Critically, however, the Good Friday Agreement stated that this border must remain open. The Northern Ireland Protocol in 2020 and the Windsor Framework in 2023 aimed to solve the technicalities of trade and free movement. However, Brexit’s impact on Northern Ireland’s politics and identity is still felt today. Brexit brought back uncertainty in politics and reintroduced identity-based division into the mainstream of political conversation. 

Politicians from both sides of the unification debate had issues with Brexit and the subsequent negotiations and agreements. The DUP criticised the Irish Sea border and trade regulations on the basis of its initial economic impact and also its symbolic nature of a border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Sinn Fein opposed Brexit as a whole, wanting to remain within the EU. Amongst the citizens of Northern Ireland, the long and complex negotiation process generated significant fatigue and disillusionment with Westminster and the Brexit process.

It therefore should be no surprise that people’s perspectives on reunification began to shift post-Brexit referendum. Sinn Féin began to experience a rise in support in elections to the Northern Irish Parliament, going from 24% of the vote in 2016 (before the Brexit referendum), to 27.9% in 2017. 

This support has not waned either: in 2022, Sinn Féin became the largest party in the Assembly, the first time a Nationalist party had done so (although it is worth noting that this is partially to do with the rise of the TUV party, taking votes from the DUP). This pattern was also seen in the 2021 census, which showed for the first time there were more people who would consider themselves from a Catholic background than Protestant, despite the borders being drawn in 1921 to maintain a Protestant majority. And even more obviously than that, polling shows a clear rise in support for reunification. 

In 2025, 34% of those surveyed in Northern Ireland said they would support reunification, compared with 27% in 2022. Importantly, 60% now view it as important to begin planning for reunification. This second stat in particular demonstrates how for those in Northern Ireland, from both sides of the political debate, Brexit has brought reunification to the table. Not necessarily in terms of supporting it, but seeing it as a realistic option and response to the political, economic and constitutional impact of Brexit. 

Whilst it does not currently ‘appear likely’ that there is a majority in support of Irish reunification, these changing statistics cannot be ignored. Brexit has had an undeniable impact on Northern Ireland and its citizens, through economic changes, political division and increased polarisation in what is already a polarised society. 

The long and complex negotiation process generated significant fatigue and disillusionment with Westminster. The Brexit agreements placed Northern Ireland in a unique position, maintaining some of the trade benefits of being in the EU, which has benefited the economy in the years since the Protocol was established. These factors have made the concept of reunification more politically and economically appealing to the citizens of Northern Ireland, and this is evident in opinion polls. 

It is clear that although it does not currently appear that a majority is in favour, the people of Northern Ireland see reunification as ‘on the cards’, whether they support it or not. So whilst Burnham may not consider it feasible or a priority for his government, it is possible that Trump’s comments have captured a mood in Northern Ireland that politicians in Westminster must not brush off.